On paper, this year’s version of the Buffalo Bills doesn’t appear as lethal of a force as the last two seasons. Veteran wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are playing in different cities, neutering one of the league’s best passing attacks since 2022. On defense, middle linebacker Matt Milano lost for the season with a leg injury he suffered during the preseason. This might just be the most underrated loss for any team all year. Without Milano last year, one of the league’s top coverage linebackers, Buffalo’s defense was Swiss cheese through the middle of the field.
If the Bills clearly don’t contain the same amount of talent as last season, what makes anyone think quarterback Josh Allen can do something he’s never done before and win the league MVP? Well, with a weaker supporting cast than a year past, Allen is in line to receive even more of the credit for any of his team’s success.
During training camp ahead of the team’s Week 1 victory over the Arizona Cardinals, the top question mark was, “who will replace Diggs and Davis at wide receiver?” Diggs especially saw 160 targets in 2023, leaving a ton of opportunities for whichever receiver steps in as Allen’s top target. Coaches and fans alike have their eyes squarely fixed on three players: Keon Coleman, the team’s top choice in this year’s NFL Draft; Curtis Samuel, a free agent acquisition set to make almost $7 million this year; and Khalil Shakir, who came on strong for the Bills over the last five games of the season. There’s also hope that tight end Dalton Kincaid can take a massive leap from being a talented rookie to a staple in the offense for years to come.
Last year, Allen did his normal Josh Allen things, including another ho-hum 4,306 passing yards and 29 passing touchdowns. Interceptions continued to plague him as he coughed up 18 of them, but he made up for any sloppy play through the air with massive gains on the ground. In 2023, Allen rushed for 524 yards with a career-best 15 rushing touchdowns. Overall, he led the league with 44 total TDs.
Still, Diggs was considered a top 10 wide receiver heading into last season and accounted for more than a quarter of Allen’s passing yards and passing TDs. Gabe Davis was also regarded as one of the best deep threats at his position and claimed 17% of Allen’s passing yards. With that much talent supporting Allen, a lot of the credit for his success was attributed to the talented teammates around him. Now, many are left to wonder if he can possibly reach the same heights as 2023 without the benefit of top-tier players to help him out.
Which is exactly why it may be his best chance yet to lift the MVP trophy at the end of the season. According to BettingTop10 Canada, Allen has the second-best chance to do so, as stated by the sportsbooks providing NFL MVP markets. He’s currently listed at around +500 odds, while Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the favorite with odds of about +400.
Allen’s mobility and rocket-like arm strength will always keep him in the conversation to win the league’s most coveted individual award. Now that he is deprived of big-name offensive weapons, his case for the MVP is only strengthened. With the realization that he doesn’t have a top 10 player at any of his skill positions, voters are likely going to find his output more impressive than anything he’s done so far in his first six seasons in the league. Should he pass for more than 4,000 yards, something he’s done every year for the last four seasons, he’s going to get more praise than ever before. Add another 40-plus touchdown scores to those yards, and it’s difficult to project a player who will be seen to have done more with such little skill around him.
Buffalo’s defense also appears to have taken a step backward after last season. As mentioned, linebacker Matt Milano’s absence will create a ton of holes down the middle of the field. Defensive coordinator Bobby Babich might have been able to plug those holes using the Bills’ consistently terrifying defensive front, but even that unit doesn’t have the same level of talent as previous seasons. Last year, Buffalo recorded the fourth-most sacks in the league and placed in the top ten in most crucial pressure metrics such as pressure rate and QB hurries.
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This season, however, most pundits are predicting a step backward for the once-vaunted unit. Veteran Von Miller continues to deal with nagging injuries that keep him sidelined. Ed Oliver had a breakout year in 2023 but still had a missed-tackle percentage that left a lot of potentially big plays on the field. And, once again, Matt Milano’s absence will be felt even more deeply if the Bills can’t force the ball out of the opposing QB’s hands early in the play.
For Josh Allen’s individual stock, however, a weaker defense should only propel him further into the limelight. A lack of defense means the Bills will likely be seen as an offensive team first, and MVP voting consists of two key aspects: how well you play on the field and the public perception of your play. It also means he’ll be forced to score more and compile even more impressive stats to keep his team in games. If you have some spare change and a sportsbook account, 5-1 odds for Allen as MVP are worth a small sprinkle.
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